totem 商业模式 · 2026 年 11 月totem business model · November 2026
谁要进门，谁付钱 Whoever wants in pays
AI 公司想让自己的 AI 替人进账户办事，按通行证付钱。App 想要一个带着资料来的新用户，按人付一次钱。品牌想用一个人的资料，先征得同意，再付钱给本人，totem 留 20%。人自己免费用，想让我们出 AI 算力，每月 8 美元。
AI companies pay for each pass that lets their AI into a person’s account. Apps pay once for each new user who arrives with their context. Brands that want to use someone’s context ask first and pay that person, and totem keeps 20%. People use totem free, or pay $8 a month if they want us to cover their AI.
测算Model以上都是基准情形的测算，不是承诺。三种情形和全部假设都在下面。Base case. A model, not a promise. All three cases and every assumption are below.
01五笔收入Five revenue lines
五笔收入，四笔来自要进门的一方 Five revenue lines. Four come from the side that wants in.
2031 年基准情形的 7.3 亿美元里，AI 公司和 App 付的占七成。人自己付的 Plus 约占四分之一。
Of the $725M in the 2031 base case, AI companies and apps pay 70%. Plus, which people pay for themselves, is about a quarter.
- AI 公司付Paid by AI companies
通行证Agent passes
每张在用的通行证每月 0.10 美元，量大降到 0.08。
$0.10 per active pass per month, falling to $0.08 with volume.
50%2031 年收入里的份额of 2031 revenue - AI 公司付Paid by AI companies
收据Receipts
要紧的事每件留一张签过名的收据，每张 0.02 美元，降到 0.015。
$0.02 for each signed receipt on a high-stakes action, falling to $0.015.
12%2031 年收入里的份额of 2031 revenue - App 和 AI 付Paid by apps and AIs
用图腾继续Continue with totem
每接一个用 totem 登录、带着资料来的新用户，付一次 0.25 到 0.30 美元。
$0.25–0.30, once, for each new user who signs in with totem and brings their context.
8%2031 年收入里的份额of 2031 revenue - 个人付Paid by people
totem Plustotem Plus
每月 8 美元，美国以外 5 美元，含一份 AI 额度，2028 年开始收。
$8 a month, $5 outside the US, with an AI allowance included. Starts in 2028.
24%2031 年收入里的份额of 2031 revenue - 品牌付Paid by brands
上下文市场Context market
品牌经本人同意用他的资料，钱付给本人，totem 留 20%。2029 年开。
Brands pay people to use their context, with consent. totem keeps 20%. Opens in 2029.
7%2031 年收入里的份额of 2031 revenue - 网站付，以后Paid by websites, later
核验来访的 AIVerified AI visitors
网站现在免费认通行证。以后为核验过的 AI 访客付钱，测算里没算这笔。
Sites accept passes free for now. Later they pay for verified AI visitors. Not in the model.
0%没算进测算left out of the model
02收的是什么钱What the money buys
AI 能办事，缺的是进门的名分 Agents can do the work. They can’t prove who sent them.
AI 替人办事，进的是人的账户。每进一个账户，网站都想知道三件事：谁让它来的，它能做什么，出了事找谁。
When an AI acts for someone, it goes into that person’s accounts. Every site it enters wants three answers: who sent it, what it may do, and who is accountable if something goes wrong.
今天的 AI 回答不了。它开着虚拟机里的浏览器，拿着存下的密码，装成人进门。网站分不清，只好拦。亚马逊 2025 年 11 月把 Perplexity 告上法庭，说它的 AI 浏览器装成 Chrome 进了顾客的账户，官司到现在还没打完。
Today’s agents can’t answer. They drive a browser in a virtual machine with a stored password and pass themselves off as the person. Sites can’t tell the difference, so they block. In November 2025 Amazon sued Perplexity, saying its AI browser posed as Chrome to get into shoppers’ accounts. The case is still open.
totem 把人的同意做成一张通行证。一个 AI 进一个账户，写明能做什么、花到多少为止、什么时候过期，要紧的事每件留一张收据。网站一看就知道是谁派来的，人随时能收回。AI 公司为这张通行证付钱。
totem turns a person’s consent into a pass: one AI, one account, what it may do, how much it may spend, when it expires, and a signed receipt for every high-stakes action. The site can see who sent the agent, and the person can take the pass back at any time. AI companies pay for the pass.
- AI
- 你的 ChatGPTYour ChatGPT
- 账户Account
- 你的航空公司会员Your airline account
- 能做什么May
- 改签航班，不能退票Change flights. Not cancel them.
- 花到多少为止Spending limit
- 200 美元$200
- 有效期Expires
- 到 11 月 9 日November 9
- 收据Receipts
- 每次改签一张One for every change
示例。AI 公司为这样一张通行证每月付 0.10 美元。
Example. An AI company pays $0.10 a month for a pass like this.
03谁付钱给谁Who pays whom
AI 公司付钱，因为它今天已经在为进门花钱 AI companies pay, because they already spend money getting in
金融 App 按连上的银行账户给 Plaid 付钱，AI 公司也会按通行证给 totem 付钱。它今天为了进门已经在花钱，浏览器虚拟机每小时 0.10 到 0.12 美元，还要绕验证码，还有办砸的任务。到 2031 年，一家 AI 公司为一个美国用户每月付 totem 约 0.64 美元，约是 20 美元订阅的 3%。
Fintech apps pay Plaid for every bank account they link. AI companies will pay totem for every pass. They already pay to get in: $0.10–0.12 an hour for a cloud browser, plus CAPTCHA workarounds and tasks that fail halfway. By 2031 an AI company pays totem about $0.64 a month per US user, roughly 3% of a $20 subscription.
网站认通行证不收钱，我们先要它们接。以后网站可以为核验过的 AI 访客付钱，这笔预算它们今天花在拦机器人上。测算里没算这笔。
Websites accept passes free, because we need them on board first. Later they can pay for verified AI visitors out of the bot-management budget they already have. The model leaves that out.
04个人的 AI 算力AI compute for people
看守资料的那份算力，我们出 We pay for the AI that guards your data
context center 每天要读进新资料、分类、盯着谁在用，这些活都靠 AI，要花算力钱。我们把算力分成两份算。
A person’s context center reads, sorts and guards their data every day. That takes AI, and AI costs money. We split it in two.
整理和看守Housekeeping
固定 · 我们出钱Fixed · on us读进新资料、分类、盯着每张通行证。用我们选定、测过的小模型，一部分直接在手机上跑，苹果和谷歌的端侧模型对 App 免费。
Reading new data, sorting it, watching every pass. It runs on small models we choose and test, partly on the phone, where Apple’s and Google’s on-device models are free to apps.
这一份对所有人都由我们出，也不依赖用户的 key。它管的是安全，不能因为谁的 key 没钱了就停。
We pay for it for everyone, and it never depends on a user’s key. It is the safety layer, so it can’t stop because someone’s key ran dry.
思考Thinking
第一天就能换Swappable from day one写回复、做计划、比价这类重活，可以交给人自己的 AI：
Heavy work, like drafting replies, planning or comparing prices, can run on the person’s own AI:
- 用 ChatGPT 账号登录，花他自己套餐里的额度Sign in with ChatGPT and use their own planOpenAI 今年 9 月起向受邀的 App 开放OpenAI opened this to invited apps in September
- 经 MCP 接他的 Claude 或 ChatGPTConnect their Claude or ChatGPT over MCP
- 填自己的 API keyPaste their own API key
- 用 Plus 里我们出的额度Use the allowance included in Plus
- 身份、通行证、收据和自己的 context centerIdentity, passes, receipts and a context center
- 整理和看守，我们出Housekeeping on us
- 思考用自己的 AI 或 keyThinking on your own AI or key
- 免费版的全部Everything in Free
- 一份我们出的 AI 额度，也能接自己的An AI allowance on us, or bring your own
- 全家共用、丢了手机能找回、记录存得更久Family sharing, account recovery, longer history
- 整套系统跑在自己的机器上Run the whole system on your own machine
- 用自己的模型和 keyYour own models and keys
- 不搞充值，也没有意外账单额度用完了走慢通道，或者换成自己的 key。No top-ups, no surprise billsPast the allowance, you get a slower lane or switch to your own key.
- Plus 的每个人都赚钱额度成本按每人每月 2 美元算，约是售价的四分之一，2031 年降到 0.80 美元。三成 Plus 用户会自带 AI，不花这份钱。Every Plus member is profitableThe allowance is budgeted at $2 per person per month, about a quarter of the price, falling to $0.80 by 2031. We assume 30% of members bring their own AI and cost nothing here.
- 不替模型厂商转卖订阅和 API 都不转卖，中间没有利润，还碰人家的价格体系。用 ChatGPT 账号登录时，钱直接付给 OpenAI，我们不经手。We don’t resell modelsNo resold subscriptions or API access: there is no margin in it, and it undercuts the vendors’ own pricing. When someone signs in with ChatGPT, they pay OpenAI directly and we never touch that money.
05钱怎么转起来How the money goes round
通行证费养住免费用户Pass fees pay for the free tier
一个免费用户 2027 年每月花我们 0.34 美元，大头是整理资料的算力，2031 年降到 0.16 美元。AI 公司和 App 为同一个人付的钱，2027 年是 0.32 美元，2028 年起超过成本，2031 年到 0.53 美元。
A free user costs us $0.34 a month in 2027, mostly the AI that sorts their data, and $0.16 by 2031. What AI companies and apps pay for that same person is $0.32 in 2027, more than the cost from 2028 on, and $0.53 by 2031.
AI 公司和 App 每月为一个人付的钱，
基准情形 · 美元 · 成本含整理算力、存储、新用户第一次读历史、通行证服务和给密码管理器的分成Base case · US dollars · cost covers housekeeping AI, storage, a new user’s first read, pass serving and the password-manager share
- AI 公司和 App 为一个人付的钱What AI companies and apps pay for one person
- 一个免费用户的成本What one free user costs
- 01用 totem 的人多了，
通行证就多 More people on totem means more passes - 02通行证多了，
认通行证的网站跟着变多 More passes bring more sites that accept them - 03通行证到哪都好用，
接进来的 AI 公司更多 Passes that work everywhere bring in more AI companies - 04AI 公司付的钱，
养住更多免费用户 Their fees pay for more free users
收据和资料攒在人自己手里。攒够了，2029 年开上下文市场，品牌开始付钱给人。
Receipts and context pile up in the person’s own hands. Once there is enough, in 2029, the context market opens and brands start paying people.
06五年测算Five-year model
2031 年 7.3 亿美元，毛利率 76% $725M in 2031, at a 76% gross margin
先美国，后全球，不含中国。2027 年是开发者版，先接已经开放 OAuth 或 MCP 的服务，收入 300 万美元。2028 年 Plus 开始收钱，totem 也开始在美国以外上线。
US first, then the rest of the world outside China. 2027 is the developer launch on services that already offer OAuth or MCP, at $3.0M. In 2028 Plus starts charging and totem launches outside the US.
- AI 公司和 App 付的Paid by AI companies and apps
- 通行证Agent passes
- 收据Receipts
- 用图腾继续Continue with totem
- 个人和品牌付的Paid by people and brands
- totem Plus
- 上下文市场Context market
人数是全年平均。毛利率扣掉了算力、存储、新用户第一次读历史、通行证服务、刷卡费和给密码管理器的分成。People are yearly averages. Gross margin is after AI compute, storage, each new user’s first read, pass serving, card fees and the password-manager share.
07三种情形Three cases
差别在于，大平台会不会把 AI 登录免费包掉 The cases turn on one question: do big platforms give agent login away?
2031 年收入，三种情形Revenue in 2031, three cases
美元 · 虚线是 Plaid 今天的年收入US dollars · the dashed line is Plaid’s annual revenue today
- 低情形Low7,280 万美元$73M大平台把 AI 登录免费包掉，totem 成了一个开发者工具。所以我们卖的是许可、限额和收据，单是登录正在变成免费的。Big platforms bundle agent login for free and totem ends up a developer tool. That is why we sell permission, limits and receipts: login on its own is becoming free.
- 基准情形Base7.3 亿美元$725M通行证成了 AI 进门的常规做法之一。美国用 AI 代办事的人里，17% 用 totem。比今天的 Plaid 大一些。Passes become one of the standard ways in. 17% of Americans who use AI agents use totem. A little larger than Plaid today.
- 高情形High24.1 亿美元$2.4B通行证成了 AI 进门的默认做法，美国以外跟得更快，上下文市场也更大。Passes become the default way in, the world outside the US follows faster, and the context market grows larger.
08密码管理器Password managers
不做密码库，和密码管理器分钱 We don’t build a vault. We share fees with the ones people already use.
还要密码的网站，由人自己的密码管理器把登录信息填进去，1Password、Bitwarden、苹果密码都行，AI 看不到密码。totem 管许可、限额和收据，经它们转交登录的那部分通行证费，分它们一成。
For sites that still need a password, the person’s own password manager (1Password, Bitwarden, Apple Passwords) fills in the login, and the AI never sees it. totem handles the permission, the limits and the receipt, and pays the password manager 10% of the pass fees for logins it hands over.
协议现在就要想清楚，但不用从零发明。1Password 今年 10 月把 AI 代登录放进了个人和家庭版，不另收钱，接口已经有了。
The protocol has to be worked out now, but it doesn’t have to be invented from scratch. In October 1Password added AI sign-in to its Individual and Family plans at no extra cost, so the interface already exists.
计划Plan 这是我们的做法，还没有和任何一家签约。This is our plan. Nothing has been signed.
- 第一年Year one用它们现成的接口，不另起协议。Use their existing interfaces. No new protocol yet.
- 接了两三家之后After two or three partners把规则写成公开规范：放出登录信息之前先查通行证，用完回一张收据。Publish the rule as an open spec: check the pass before releasing a credential, return a receipt afterwards.
- 之后Then网站直接认通行证，经密码管理器转交的登录越来越少。测算按 2027 年六成、2031 年两成算。As sites accept passes directly, fewer logins go through password managers: 60% of passes in 2027, 20% by 2031 in the model.
09上下文市场Context market
上下文市场抽 20%，本人拿 80% The context market takes 20%. The person keeps 80%.
品牌想用一个人的资料，比如按他的尺码和行程给一份报价，先征得同意，再付钱给本人。撮合、征得同意、核验和收据都是 totem 做，所以抽 20%。
When a brand wants to use someone’s context, say their sizes and travel plans for a tailored offer, it asks first and pays that person. totem finds the match, gets the consent, verifies the data and issues the receipt, which is why it keeps 20%.
第一天就定 20%，不先低后高。费率改来改去，最伤信任。上下文市场 2029 年开，基准情形里 2031 年占收入的 7%。
20% from day one, not low first and higher later: changing the rate is the fastest way to lose trust. The market opens in 2029 and is 7% of revenue in the 2031 base case.
平台从每笔钱里留多少What the platform keeps from each payment
浅色段是区间 · Brave 的比例是它自报的Light segments are ranges · the Brave share is self-reported
有一条线不碰。人自己的 AI 替他买东西时，我们不向商家抽成。
One line we won’t cross: when a person’s own AI buys something for them, we take nothing from the seller.
替你买东西的人，不能同时拿商家的回扣。
Whoever shops for you can’t also take the seller’s kickback.
10要成立的前提What has to go right
这几件事要成Five things have to go right
- AI 公司愿意用通行证，
不再开浏览器硬闯 AI companies choose passes over brute-force browsers这是最大的变数。大平台要是把 AI 登录免费包掉，就是低情形，2031 年约 7,300 万美元。The biggest unknown. If big platforms give agent login away, we are in the low case: $73M in 2031. - 网站愿意认通行证Sites accept passes所以网站先免费接，通行证从已经开放 OAuth 和 MCP 的服务开始。Which is why sites join free, and why passes start with services that already offer OAuth and MCP.
- 端侧模型够用On-device models are good enough整理资料的成本要从每人每月 0.20 美元降到 0.08 美元，免费版才养得起。Housekeeping has to fall from $0.20 to $0.08 per person per month for the free tier to stay affordable.
- 大网站也可能反过来向 AI 收进门费Big sites may charge AIs for access instead摩根大通已经向 Plaid 收数据费。真走到这一步，通行证就是记账的地方，这笔费用可以经 totem 结算。JPMorgan already charges Plaid for data. If that spreads, the pass is where access gets metered, and the fee can be settled through totem.
- 人愿意留下来People stay测算按每年流失 20% 算。留下来的理由，是资料和收据都攒在自己的 totem 里。The model assumes 20% of users leave each year. What keeps people is that their context and receipts build up in their own totem.
11假设和出处Assumptions and sources
假设和出处Assumptions and sources
测算模型是 bizmodel3.py，三种情形、五年、两个市场。下面是基准情形的假设，箭头左边是 2027 年，右边是 2031 年。
The model is bizmodel3.py: three cases, five years, two markets. Below are the base-case assumptions, 2027 on the left of each arrow and 2031 on the right.
基准情形的假设Base-case assumptions
- 成年人Adults
- 美国 2.66 亿 → 2.70 亿，美国以外（不含中国）35 亿 → 38 亿US 266M → 270M. Outside the US, excluding China, 3.5B → 3.8B
- 用 AI 代办事的成年人Adults using AI agents
- 美国 15% → 55%，美国以外 3% → 18%US 15% → 55%. Elsewhere 3% → 18%
- 其中用 totem 的Of those, using totem
- 美国 2% → 17%，美国以外 0 → 8%（2028 年开始）US 2% → 17%. Elsewhere 0 → 8% (from 2028)
- 每人在用的通行证Active passes per person
- 2.5 → 6.5 张2.5 → 6.5
- 通行证价格Pass price
- 每张每月 0.10 → 0.08 美元$0.10 → $0.08 per month
- 收据Receipts
- 每人每月 2 → 8 张，每张 0.02 → 0.015 美元2 → 8 per person per month, at $0.02 → $0.015
- 用图腾继续Continue with totem
- 每人每年新接 1 → 4 个 App，每次 0.30 → 0.25 美元1 → 4 new apps per person per year, at $0.30 → $0.25
- PlusPlus
- 2028 年 1.5% 的人付费，2031 年 3%。每月 8 美元，美国以外 5 美元1.5% of people pay in 2028, 3% by 2031. $8 a month, $5 outside the US
- 上下文市场Context market
- 每人每年成交 0.5 → 3 美元（2029–2031），totem 留 20%$0.50 → $3 of deals per person per year (2029–2031). totem keeps 20%
- 美国以外的价格Prices outside the US
- 按美国的 60%60% of US prices
- 整理和看守（云上）Housekeeping (cloud)
- 每人每月 0.20 → 0.08 美元，其余在手机上跑$0.20 → $0.08 per person per month. The rest runs on the phone
- 其他成本Other costs
- 存储每人每月 0.03 美元。新用户第一次读历史 1.00 → 0.25 美元。每张通行证每月服务费 0.005 美元。刷卡费 3%Storage $0.03 per person per month. First read of a new user’s history $1.00 → $0.25. Serving $0.005 per pass per month. Card fees 3%
- Plus 额度Plus allowance
- 每人每月 2.00 → 0.80 美元，三成 Plus 用户自带 AI$2.00 → $0.80 per member per month. 30% of members bring their own AI
- 给密码管理器的分成Password-manager share
- 经它们转交的通行证 60% → 20%，分这部分费用的一成60% → 20% of passes go through them. They get 10% of those fees
- 流失Churn
- 每年 20%20% a year
- 低情形和高情形Low and high cases
- 改的是用 AI 代办事的比例、用 totem 的比例、每人通行证数和价格，Plus 和上下文市场也跟着变They change adoption, totem’s share, passes per person and prices. Plus and the market move with them
出处Sources
- Plaid 年收入约 5.46 亿美元Plaid at about $546M ARR · sacra.com估算estimate
- Plaid 连着 5 亿多个账户Plaid’s 500M+ linked accounts · pymnts.com自报self-reported
- Browserbase 的价格，超出套餐每浏览器小时 0.10 到 0.12 美元Browserbase pricing, $0.10–0.12 per browser hour over plan · docs.browserbase.com官方价格页pricing page
- 亚马逊诉 Perplexity，2026 年 3 月的禁令Amazon v. Perplexity, the March 2026 injunction · geekwire.com报道report
- 上诉法院驳回亚马逊重审请求，案子还在审Appeals court turns down Amazon again; the case continues · mediapost.com报道report
- 1Password for AI agents，放进个人和家庭版1Password for AI agents, in Individual and Family plans · 1password.com官方official
- Sign in with ChatGPT 的开发者文档Sign in with ChatGPT, developer guide · developers.openai.com官方official
- 第三方 App 用 ChatGPT 套餐额度Third-party apps using ChatGPT plan usage · inside.com.tw报道report
- 摩根大通向 Plaid 收数据费JPMorgan charges Plaid for data access · americanbanker.com报道report
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